How to value a startup: VC method, Scorecard and Berkus
Early-stage startups rarely have stable profits, which makes discounted cash flow of little use. Angel investors and funds use their own methods, based on exit potential, comparison with other startups and risk reduction.
VC method
It starts from the expected value at a future sale (revenue at exit × sector multiple), divides by the return the investor requires (10 to 30 times) and subtracts dilution from future rounds. In the calculator’s example: $40 million in revenue × 3 = $120 million at exit; ÷ 10 and × (1 − 40%) = $7.2 million post-money; minus the $2 million investment, a pre-money of $5.2 million.
The example uses the calculator’s default values; replace them with your own.
Scorecard method
Created by Bill Payne, it starts from the average pre-money of similar startups in the same region and stage and adjusts it by weighted factors: team (30%), market size (25%), product (15%), competition (10%), marketing and channels (10%), need for further capital (5%) and other (5%). A startup with an above-average team and market is worth more than the average.
Berkus method
Created by Dave Berkus for pre-revenue companies, it assigns up to a maximum value to each of five risk-reduction factors: sound idea, prototype, management team, strategic relationships and first sales. The original method uses up to $500,000 per factor.
Pre-money, post-money and ownership
Post-money = pre-money + investment. The investor’s stake is investment ÷ post-money. With a $6.6 million pre-money and a $2 million investment, the investor gets 23.3%. In seed rounds, selling 10% to 25% is common.
Valuation is a negotiation
The methods give a reference range. The final number depends on traction, interest from other investors, market timing and contract terms, such as liquidation preference, that can matter as much as the valuation itself.