How long will my money last in retirement
Anyone living off savings has to answer one question: how much can I withdraw each month without running out too soon? The answer depends on three numbers: the size of the portfolio, the withdrawal and the return above inflation.
Think in today’s money
The calculator raises your withdrawal with inflation every year to keep its buying power. That is why the real return matters: with a 6% return and 3% inflation, the real return is 2.91%.
The example
With $600,000 and a $3,000 monthly withdrawal (6% of the portfolio a year), the money lasts 22 years and 7 months: starting at 62, it runs out at about 84. To last 30 years, the withdrawal would have to be $2,483 a month; to never touch principal, $1,434.
The 4% rule
Research by William Bengen (1994) and the Trinity study (1998) found that withdrawing 4% of the portfolio in the first year and raising it with inflation lasted 30 years in most historical U.S. scenarios. In the example, that is $2,000 a month. It is a guideline, not a guarantee.
Sequence risk
This calculation uses a constant return. In real life some years earn less, and losses right after withdrawals begin shorten the duration considerably. To measure that risk, take your numbers to the Monte Carlo simulation, which runs thousands of return sequences.