How to use the PEG ratio and Peter Lynch’s fair value
Peter Lynch ran Fidelity’s Magellan fund from 1977 to 1990 and popularized a simple idea: a stock’s price should be judged against how fast its earnings grow. A P/E of 30 can be cheap for a company growing 40% a year and expensive for one growing 5%.
The PEG ratio
PEG = P/E ÷ expected annual earnings growth (in %)
| PEG | Reading |
|---|---|
| Below 0.5 | Very cheap for its growth |
| 0.5 to 1 | Cheap |
| 1 to 1.5 | Fair price |
| 1.5 to 2 | Getting expensive |
| Above 2 | Expensive for its growth |
Example
A stock priced at $22 with earnings per share of $2 has a P/E of 11. If earnings grow 15% a year, the PEG is 11 ÷ 15 = 0.73: cheap for its growth. Lynch’s fair value, where the P/E equals the growth rate, is $2 × 15 = $30.
The version with dividends
For companies that pay generous dividends, Lynch used (growth + dividend yield) ÷ P/E. Above 2 is very attractive, between 1 and 2 reasonable, below 1 weak. In the example, (15 + 4) ÷ 11 = 1.73.
When the PEG does not work
Lynch did not use the PEG for cyclicals (the P/E looks low at the peak of the cycle), turnarounds (earnings are depressed or negative) or asset plays (value is in the assets, not the earnings). He also distrusted growth above 25% a year: few companies sustain it for long, so fair value is capped at that level.