Piotroski F-Score and Altman Z-Score: testing a company’s financial strength
Cheap stocks are cheap for a reason, and sometimes the reason is that the business is getting worse. Two classic models help separate the healthy companies from the fragile ones using only the financial statements.
Piotroski F-Score
In 2000, accounting professor Joseph Piotroski proposed nine simple tests, each worth one point, comparing two consecutive years:
| Group | Tests (1 point each) |
|---|---|
| Profitability | Positive return on assets; positive operating cash flow; higher return on assets; operating cash flow above net income |
| Leverage and liquidity | Lower long-term debt relative to assets; higher current ratio; no new shares issued |
| Efficiency | Higher gross margin; higher asset turnover |
In his study of cheap stocks (low price-to-book), those scoring 8 or 9 beat those scoring 0 to 2 by a wide margin. The score works best as a filter among stocks that already look cheap.
Altman Z-Score
Edward Altman created the Z-Score in 1968 to estimate the risk of bankruptcy. The version for emerging markets used here is Z = 3.25 + 6.56 × (working capital ÷ assets) + 3.26 × (retained earnings ÷ assets) + 6.72 × (EBIT ÷ assets) + 1.05 × (equity ÷ total liabilities). Above 5.85 is the safe zone; 4.15 to 5.85, the grey zone; below 4.15, the distress zone.
Limits
Both models were built for industrial and commercial companies and do not fit banks or insurers. They are statistical screens: a good score does not guarantee a good investment, and a bad one calls for a closer look rather than an automatic sale.