How to judge a company’s quality before investing
Warren Buffett looks for businesses with a durable competitive advantage, the “economic moat” that protects profits from competitors for many years. A moat is hard to measure directly, but it leaves marks on the financial statements: high and steady returns, growing earnings, stable margins and little debt.
The eight criteria
| Criterion | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Average ROE of at least 15% | The company earns well on shareholders’ money. |
| ROE above 12% every year | The return holds up even in bad years. |
| Earnings grew in at least 80% of the years | Growth is regular and predictable. |
| Earnings grow more than 7% a year | The business is expanding faster than inflation. |
| Stable net margin | The company can pass on costs: pricing power. |
| Net debt up to 2 years of earnings | Debt could be repaid quickly. |
| $1 retained earnings test above 1 | Reinvested earnings create value. |
| Sustainable growth of at least 8% | The company can grow without new debt or shares. |
The $1 retained earnings test
Buffett wrote that every dollar a company keeps instead of paying out should, over time, add at least one dollar of market value. Add up the earnings retained over the period and compare with the change in market value. If $10 billion retained became $25 billion of market value, each dollar became $2.50.
Sustainable growth
Sustainable growth = ROE × (1 − payout ratio). A company with a 20% ROE that pays out 40% of earnings can grow about 12% a year using only its own profits. Growth well above this level usually requires debt or new shares.
Limits
The criteria are general benchmarks. Banks, insurers and utilities have different typical numbers, and one-off events can distort a single year. Use at least five years of data and read the annual reports to understand the reasons behind the numbers.