Fixed, floating or inflation-linked: how to choose
Fixed-income investments pay you in one of three ways. A fixed rate locks in the return on the day you invest. A floating rate pays a percentage of a reference rate (such as the central bank policy rate) and changes as rates change. An inflation-linked bond pays inflation plus a fixed real rate. None of them is always better: the winner depends on what happens to interest rates and inflation during the term.
Breakeven inflation
Comparing a fixed rate with the real rate of an inflation-linked bond of the same term gives the inflation the market is pricing in: (1 + fixed rate) ÷ (1 + real rate) − 1. With a 4.6% fixed rate and a 2.0% real rate, breakeven inflation is about 2.55% a year. If you expect inflation above that, the inflation-linked bond should pay more; below it, the fixed rate wins.
Breakeven reference rate
For floating rates, the question is the average reference rate over the term. If the floating option pays 100% of the reference rate, it only beats a 4.6% fixed rate if the reference rate averages more than 4.6%. If you think rates will fall, the fixed rate is attractive; if you think they will rise, or prefer not to bet, floating is safer.
Taxes and tax-free equivalents
Interest is usually taxed as income, but some bonds and accounts are tax-exempt. To compare, divide the tax-free rate by (1 − your tax rate): a tax-free 3.5% equals a taxable 4.49% for someone in a 22% bracket. The calculator applies the tax rate you type to the gain at the end of the term.
Price changes before maturity
Fixed-rate and inflation-linked bonds only deliver the contracted rate if held to maturity. Sold earlier, their price depends on market rates that day, and can be higher or lower. Floating-rate investments barely move in price. A common approach is to split the money among the three types so you do not depend on a single forecast.